From Can’t to Won’t: The Determinants of Non-Voting in Recent Elections
In the 2024 Presidential election, over 89 million voting-eligible Americans did not get out to vote. This means that over one-third of the United States voting-eligible population did not participate. Voting is recognized as an important aspect of American citizenship that several groups fought for the right to have, so this raises the question of what is currently influencing significant non-voting in the United States? The extant literature identifies resource-based factors of lack of time, difficulty with transportation, and health as major determinants of non-voting, specifically for marginalized communities. However, as advancements have been made to overcome these barriers, it should be considered whether attitudinal factors, such as a lack of interest or dislike of political candidates, have taken precedence in individuals’ decisions not to vote. Using the 2016-2024 Cooperative Election Study, I consider whether the effect of resource-based factors and attitudinal factors are more impactful on political participation and policy preferences. I find that attitudinal factors have become more impactful in recent elections in influencing non-voting, specifically, not liking candidates. In addition, I find the reason for non-voting impacts support for policies like immigration, health care, and abortion. This project will update conventional wisdom on the factors that influence non-voting and its political significance.
Does My Vote Make a Difference? Comparing Levels of Political Apathy Across Black, Latino, and White Respondents
w/ Natalie Masuoka
Non-voting in American democracy is a consistent paradox in modern political science. Turnout among eligible voters has stagnated around 60 percent over the last decade yet understandings of non-participation or how to rectify it in the American public have not developed. This paper returns to the longstanding concept of political apathy and offers an account of how prevalent perceptions of political apathy are felt among the modern electorate, focusing on the degree to which there exists variation by racial group. Using the 2008-2020 ANES Time Series, we examine the level of political apathy among voters across four election cycles and explore the degree to which there is any variation by racial group. We find that some measures of apathy predicts non-voting similarly for all racial groups while others consistently predicts turnout for whites and has no relationship for Blacks or Latinos. This paper updates previous discussions on political apathy and explores if new conceptualizations need to be developed to account for the growing diversity in the American electorate.
Acknowledging the Apathetic Voter: Black Non-voting and Racial Group Apathy
Received 2026 Western Political Science Association’s Best Dissertation Award
Dissertation Abstract:
“No vote, no voice” is a common sentiment expressed among the Black community surrounding political participation. However, this rhetoric leaves members of the Black electorate who do not feel their political gains are being met by the current political system out of the discussion. These same individuals proved pivotal for the sudden decrease in Presidential turnout amongst Black individuals in the 2016 Presidential elections as well for this dissertation. Specifically, I seek to provide a modern profile of Black non-voters and posit a theory of Black voter apathy that explains a potential increase in Black non-voting in future presidential elections. This theory pulls from other theories in political science like political interest, external efficacy, and political apathy while also considering how relationships between the Black electorate and political participation function. I also employ conceptualizations of apathy from psychology scholars as well as Black nihilism from scholars of Black political thought. To further explore this phenomenon, I ask three research questions: 1) What is the status of Black voting and non-voting in 2020? 2) What is the effect of vote capture on Black political participation? 3) How can a measure of Black voter apathy aid in the understanding of Black political participation? I engage with a quantitative approach to answer these research questions which includes pre-existing survey data, an original survey experiment, and a survey testing a novel measure of Black voter apathy. I contend that to remedy a potential rise of Black non-voting a new measure that encapsulates the psychological experience that Black voters are facing. I propose a 7-point measure to best measure Black voter apathy within this dissertation for future research. Broadly, this dissertation seeks to advocate for those members of the Black electorate who feel disillusioned by electoral politics and seek alternative avenues for political engagement. Additionally, it seeks to serve as a nexus for Black political thought, psychology, and political science to craft a space in academia where all members of the Black electorate are better understood.
Reconciling Theories and Patterns in Black-White Voter Turnout Through A Mini Meta-Analysis
Recent voter turnout data has revealed a consistent and growing turnout gap between Black and White Americans since the 2012 Presidential election. Scholars have attributed this gap to an increase in restrictive voting laws. However, few have considered the decreased effectiveness of long-standing models of political behavior on Black voter turnout as the American political landscape has shifted. This note seeks to uncover patterns in recent Presidential elections that display a lack of effectiveness of prominent voter turnout models for Black Americans due to disparate socializing experiences in a post-Obama context like voter suppression and a global pandemic. It employs models previously used by Leighley and Vedletz (1999) to evaluate and compare turnout models for Black and White individuals with mini-meta analysis. This paper utilizes the 2016 and 2020 Collaborative Multiracial Post-election Survey (CMPS) and the 2016 and 2020 American National Election Survey to establish models and measure their impact on Black and White voter turnout. I find support that prominent turnout models behave differently in a post-Obama context like income, length of residence, group consciousness, and group threat while some models behave differently for Black and white voters like political interest and political efficacy. These findings assert that new turnout models need to be established to better understand the Black electorate in a post-Obama context.